Sunday, April 15, 2012

Presidental election polls

Presidential election polls for November 2012 are marked by all sorts of variations in the approval rating. First of all, there are states considered strongly Democratic (Pennsylvania, California, Washington, Hawaii etc), weak Democratic (Iowa), barely Democratic (Florida) or strongly Republican (Alaska, Idaho, Texas etc), weak Republican (Arizona) or barely Republican (Montana). The data in presidential election polls also vary depending on the approval rating among the white population, the Hispanic and the African-American populations.

For examples, the approval rate in presidential election polls has dropped for president Obama from 62% to 46%, in one week, and among African-Americans from 84% to 74%. Nevertheless, such statistical results are sure to have a larger margin of error than suspected. Which means that the approval rate for Obama among the Hispanic community is unpredictable, without guarantees and not tenuous. This theory seems to hold true in the context of current realities with no major event that would justify such a massive shift among Hispanics from one week to another.

Presidential election polls are frequently checked not only by common Americans, but also by presidential campaign managers. They monitor the evolution of the election polls results closely in order to find out where their candidate and his opponents stand in the presidential race. Internet web pages dedicated to election polls present average approval and disapproval rates as well as the evolution over a specific period of time. It also noteworthy to mention the fact that polls are provided by various agencies, and margins of error need to be taken into consideration.

In addition to presidential election polls, information is also available on the approval and disapproval rate for the State of the Union, the race for the Congress and so on. The polls may also be checked by state, by candidate or by part (Republican or Democrat). Televisions present presidential election polls periodically to keep the population updated on how things evolve nationwide. For president Obama, the approval and disapproval rate among the population is almost 50% - 50% with slight variations of 1%-3%.

The presidential election campaign has lots of tough months ahead, and we can expect all sorts of variations in the presidential election polls. Until November 2012, we can't tell who was really right in political speculations, polls and future trend analysis. Moreover, lots of events may occur till fall, and change the course of action in the race for the White House.

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